The PSOE is facing its worst electoral
. The loss of the PSOE's electoral support is almost impossible to trace from here to the 2012 elections. Not the PP analysis. Is what, after analyzing the evolution of voting and the conduct of citizens left in recent years, consider a group of sociologists politlogos and collected by the Foundation filosocialista Alternatives. Everything points, with their data, they may repeat the scenario of 2000, the absolute majority of Jos Mara Aznar.
The head of the rea-institutional POLITICAL fundaciny CIS director until September, when he was dismissed by Mara Teresa Fernandez de la Vega, Bethlehem Barreiro, explains that the scenario drawn by the polls is very similar to what occurred in the years leading up to this resounding victory of PP, have become popular with centrist voters and there are strong indications that the abstention be high.
Is a maximum sociolgica that whoever wins the center in Spain, citizens in ideological scale of 1 to 10 are Sitan at 5, wins the election. And, according to Barreiro, the CP began to impose in polls in this strip from the second quarter of this term. However, both the expert and the Science catedrtico Politics at the University Pompeu i Fabra Mariano Torcal argue that things are why lead to a absolute majority of today's first match of the opposition. All depend on the voters.
The Socialist Party holds, for now, that the transfer of votes found in the studies is low and it also matches the study by researchers William Lamb and Irene Martn on 'Who are the voters ycmo Spaniards left. " Among those who are placed on the left, the Socialist vote loss amounts to 20%, but this flow does not pick it up UI and not stay in the abstention: they are undecided. The same goes for 25% of the center, although 15% of these last s seems to be the PP.
Estn how undecided voters left and extreme left center, Questions Lamb. On average, the probability of re-vote for the PSOE is 55% and that do not 45%. The data becomes more important if one considers that these sectors were important in the victory of Zapatero, 2008. For though remained strong among those who consider the center -40% versus 24% of PP-were many centrist voters turned away from the Socialists.
According to the Torcal work in 2004, the PSOE was able to attract 54% of voters in the position five. Four years later, the figure fell precipitously by 14 points. The center 19% opt for abstention. Instead Zapatero held up well between the left and, indeed, managed to bite votes ERC, IU and ICV.
Now, according to Lamb says, a researcher at the Autonomous University of Madrid, the loss of socialist vote homognea is distributed, ie that the hole was created on one side is not covered in the other, as happened in the latest general.
Dialogue with ETA
Zapatero then could shake some of the flags that distinguish an left, which, according to these experts, there are many. Barreiro argued that the difference between both sides of the ideological spectrum has nothing to do with values such as equality, the role of the state or the redistribution of wealth.
The citizens of the right in Spain also are socialdemcratas he says. Where to then the differences lie According to Irene Martn, everything that has to do with moral issues religiny-homosexuality, abortion, euthanasia, national identities, the state model and the response to terrorism. The Left says this professor of political science at the Autonomous-is more favorable to a dialogue with ETA to the center left.
The sociologists admit that if the legislature came together again, as happened in Zapatero's first term on issues such as the signs quiz the PSOE managed to relocate even slightly. The problem, they say, is that in a crisis like the current one is useless to try to divert attention to issues unrelated to the situation economically, that is what worries the public. But what if the economy improves from here to 2012 Even so, according to these scholars, the Socialists are complicated.